What Will An Aussie Family Look Like 20 Christmases From Now?

Date: 22/12/2010

This is a story about the future shape of Australian families and how it will impact on living arrangements and property.

While many Australian families will be spending Christmas together this year the shape of these families, and where they might be five or twenty Christmases from now, could be very different according to the latest report on Australian Social Trends released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

There will be many young faces around Australian Christmas tables this year, with more babies born to Australian women in the last half decade than in any other five-year period.

Looking ahead, Australia's ageing population will mean that come future Christmases, there will be more older couple only and lone person households.

The number of one-person households is growing, due largely to the ageing of the population and the number of one parent families. Couples having smaller families have also contributed to the fall in household size.

In 2006 Australia boasted a total of 7.8 million households. By 2031 this number is projected to expand to between 11.4 and 11.8 million.

But whilst the number of households is projected to increase, the average number of people within each household is projected to decline - from 2.6 in 2006 to between 2.4 and 2.5 people per household in 2031.

There are various situations that will lead to people living by themselves: not forming live-in partnerships, a relationship breakdown or the result of becoming widowed.

Between 2006 and 2031 lone person households are projected to grow from 1.9 million to 3.2 million, with the proportion of all households containing only one person rising from 24 per cent to 28 per cent.

As older people are more likely to live alone (most often because of widowhood) an ageing population has the effect of increasing the number of lone person households.

Almost two-thirds of the increase in lone person households between 2006 and 2031 is projected to be among people aged 60 years and over. (In 2006, the peak age for people living alone was 55-59 years. In 2031, this is projected to have shifted to 80-84 years, which corresponds with ageing Baby Boomers.)

The decrease in the average number of people within households means that the number of households is projected to grow faster than the overall population.

Population growth and the ageing of the population, along with societal changes such as the propensity for people to have smaller families, or live alone, are projected to lead to an extra 3.8 million Australian households by 2031.

This suggests that property developers had better start thinking ahead to smaller dwellings and move away from the notion that single over-50s belong in a retirement village. Property investors would also be wise to keep an eye on this trend.

Cohousing and community are likely to boom, says Professor Graeme Hugo, Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of Geographical Information Systems at the University of Adelaide.

Growth in particular types of households may be reflected not only in the types of dwellings required but also in the types of services needed. An ageing population may put more emphasis on single person accommodation, in particular for older people, as well as on health, caring and support services for older people living alone. Meanwhile, the projected increase in family households may continue demand for family accommodation and allied services.

The scale of the projected growth, particularly in the capital cities, is likely to present significant public policy challenges for city planning and service provision.

By 2031 Melbourne is projected to have experienced the largest increase in the number of households of all capital cities (with an increase of 720,000 households), followed by Sydney (661,000). However, Perth is projected to have the fastest growth rate (2.2 per cent per year), followed by Brisbane (2.1 per cent per year).